Fuel Economy Regulations and Technology Roadmaps of China and the US: Comparison and Outlook 2018-01-1826

In order to address the increasing energy and environmental concerns, China and the US both launched the fuel economy regulations and aim to push the development of technology. In this study, the stringency of CAFC and CAFE regulations and the technology development of two countries are compared. Besides, the optimal technology pathways of America and automakers for the compliance of CAFE regulations are calculated based on the modified VOLPE model, and the results are used as reference for China. The results indicate that the annual regulation improvement rates of China is higher than America and the AIR of China 2015-2020 regulation reaches 6.2% and is the most stringent phase in 10 years from 2015 to 2025. From the perspective of technology, there are still big gaps between China and the US in the applications of advanced fuel saving technologies. For both countries, engine still will plays the biggest role in the technology roadmap through 2025 and the contribution rates of electrification and vehicle assembly technologies will increase quickly. The 2020 targets can be reached by the improvement and optimization of existing fuel saving technologies, and 70% hybridization technologies should be introduced for the compliance of the 2025 regulation. The penetration of PHEV/EVs will be 2-3% of the passenger car fleet in MY 2025 and FCV is not necessary for the compliance of US 2025 CAFE target. However, new energy products still need to be prepared in China because of the implementation of dual-credit regulations of CAFC and NEV.